As activity trends in Christian County increased, COVID-19 cases grew, Google data show

An analysis by Hoptown Chronicle shows that by mid-to-late May, visits to many public places appeared to return to pre-coronavirus levels. It was followed by a spike in local cases.

Approximately two weeks after most activity trends in Christian County started to return to pre-coronavirus levels, the county began to see a significant increase in its number of COVID-19 cases, Google mobility data show.

Using the same kind of aggregated and anonymized data used to show popular times for places in Google Maps, the tech company in April began releasing COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports to help public health officials manage their response to the ongoing public health crisis. The reports show movement trends to various places as compared to a median value established during the five-week period from Jan. 3 to Feb. 6, 2020.

An analysis by Hoptown Chronicle of all of the reports released to-date for Christian County shows that during most of April and May, visits to areas related to transportation and places categorized as retail and recreation remained below the baseline, while people spent much more time at home. Essential trips — like those to the grocery store and pharmacy — were sporadic, dipping above and below the baseline. Workplace visits have remained below baseline throughout the pandemic.

Shortly after many businesses were allowed to reopen their doors with certain safety precautions in place in mid-to-late May, visits to retail and recreation locations, as well as groceries and pharmacies and time spent at home, returned to levels that were typical before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Around the same time, the data show a significant spike in visits to areas Google classifies as “transit stations,” which have been higher than the baseline since June 5 — at least 20% higher since Google’s June 27 report, suggesting an increase in travel. The types of places in this category that exist in Christian County include locations such as highway rest stops and car rental agencies, according to Google.

Christian County has seen a surge in local coronavirus cases since around June 23. During that span of just less than four weeks, the county has reported 56% of all coronavirus cases since the first case of COVID-19 was confirmed locally on March 19.

Cases also have been on an upward trend statewide. Today, Gov. Andy Beshear announced 979 new COVID-19 cases — the state’s highest single-day total yet.

In response to the increase in cases, Beshear issued an executive order earlier this month mandating masks in stores and other public places. He has said he hopes the requirement, which went into effect on July 10, will help curb the spread of the virus while allowing businesses to remain open.

Local health officials have urged everyone to adopt habits such as frequent hand washing and the use of sanitizer, wearing a mask, practicing social distancing, and avoiding touching your face. They also encourage anyone, with or without symptoms, to be tested.

“In studying the COVID-19 curve, we can see that case increases began to spike as citizens returned to work, businesses opened, and patrons began moving more throughout the community,” Christian County Health Department spokeswoman Amanda Sweeney said in a release last week. “We want to see businesses continue to open and operate, so we encourage the community to please continue to follow the health guidelines provided from the state and national leaders.”

(Julia Hunter is the webmaster for Hoptown Chronicle. Reach her at Julia_Hunter622@hotmail.com.)

Julia Hunter is the engagement editor for Hoptown Chronicle. Reach her at julia@hoptownchronicle.org.